ERC Starting Grant: How to break vicious cycles in state-citizen interactions?

Vicious cycles of distrust in state institutions and poor public service quality are unfortunately very common across a number of societies. For example, if parents find that the local school does not meet their expectations in terms of providing their children with a proper education, they will be more likely to develop negative attitudes towards the public sector. This, in turn, can lead to distrust in politicians who believe that the state, including regional and municipal administrations, should have greater influence and more resources. Ultimately, the parents may instead be more motivated to vote for parties and political actors who want to limit the influence and resources of the state.

A poor reputation could also result in fewer people wanting to work in the public sector, further fortifying the poor state of public services. This will potentially prompt more parents to take their children out of public schools and transfer them to private educational institutions, causing the quality of public schooling to deteriorate even more. These dynamics will perpetuate and intensify precisely the circumstances that some citizens tried to escape in the first place.

Such vicious cycles, in which poor public service quality reinforces the population’s negative attitudes toward the state and vice versa, can occur in all dimensions in which the public sector provides services and regulation, including healthcare, education and public safety. This situation of mutually reinforcing distrust and low state performance can be described as a “negative equilibrium”.

More positive attitudes

That is also the title of Jan Vogler’s new research project: EQUILIBRIUM. With the subtitle “Changing for the Better: Escaping Negative Equilibria in State-Citizen Relations”.

With his grant from the European Research Council – a prestigious ERC Starting Grant of DKK 11.2 million – Associate Professor of Political Science Jan Vogler will investigate how such vicious cycles can be broken.

Previous research has focused on the fact that equilibria are decidedly stable and therefore difficult to change.

“Where things are going badly, people have little trust in the state and try to avoid engaging with it or using its services. But, for as long as they do not trust the state and abstain from using its services, things won’t get any better. In many contexts, it looks as if it is extremely difficult to change the situation. People are often unaware of these vicious cycles, even though they themselves – and their beliefs and behaviour – are an important part of them,” says Jan Vogler.

However, Jan Vogler wants to show how it is possible to find a way out of this situation. In his new research project, he will identify the factors that will allow different regions in Europe and North America to escape these negative equilibria by shifting towards more positive population attitudes and more effective state institutions.

“It’s extremely important – and critical – for countries to find out how to break these vicious cycles. For this purpose, we can look to countries and regions where state-citizen relations are more positive,” he says, continuing:

“My focus is on the potential for changing the behaviour and attitudes of citizens. As soon as the attitudes and voting behaviour of the population change, it becomes possible for politicians who want to improve the state, its services and its resources to win elections. One target group for the research results could be political decision-makers who look for a way out of negative equilibria,” says Jan Vogler.

Information is the way forward

One of the solutions he points to is positive information about the state.

“Presenting parents with a detailed report on successful learning outcomes and comprehensive learning resources available at their local school increases the chance that they will see the institution in a new and positive light and thus send their child there. Such reports could also include statements from other parents who are satisfied with the school. The reports will likely be particularly effective if they are produced by parties independent of the state,” explains Jan Vogler.

He also points out that different personality types may be more inclined to form positive attitudes than others.

“People who are open to new experiences are likely more capable of changing their beliefs than individuals who may have lived their entire life in one place, who grew up with and have developed more deeply ingrained attitudes and patterns of thought about local authorities. The latter are more difficult to convince to take on another perspective.”

Jan Vogler and his research team will use a distinct combination of surveys, inquiries to administrations, and natural experiments to collect data from Denmark, Germany, Poland, Romania, Italy and the United States in order to examine state-citizen relations across countries and regions. The project will run for five years.

“Being awarded an ERC grant represents an amazing opportunity to do rigorous research on topics of major societal relevance. We really look forward to starting the project next year. Therefore, I will soon begin with the search for talented researchers to join my team. Together, we will spend several years immersing ourselves in the proposed research and eventually also communicating all our new knowledge to the public,” says Jan Vogler.

Christoffer Green-Pedersen, head of the Department of Political Science, is also thrilled:

“Securing another ERC grant for our department is fantastic, and Jan’s project is an extremely original and promising one, for which we have high expectations.”

Further information

An ERC Starting Grant is awarded to young, talented researchers, who are thereby given the opportunity to lead their own groundbreaking research project. The grant amounts to EUR 1.5 million, equivalent to DKK 11.2 million, and covers a period of five years.

• Read the ERC’s press release on the grants
• Read more about Jan Vogler and his research
• Access research papers and further resources by Jan Vogler on his website