Eight BSS researchers receive IRDF grants

The eight research projects are:

Mia Skytte O'Toole, Professor, Department of Psychology and Behavioural Sciences: “Is less more or is more less? Evaluating core components from cognitive psychotherapies”
Amount granted: DKK 3,154,238

More people than ever suffer from mental disorders and as a result seek psychological help. Today’s psychologists have more than 500 named treatment programs to choose from. Practically, this often results in the psychologist combining techniques from several different programs. However, even though individual treatment programs, comprising of certain techniques, have been proven efficacious, this does not mean that techniques drawn from different programs can effectively and safely be combined. Indeed, preliminary evidence from the four existing studies suggests that certain combinations of widely employed techniques may lead to poorer effects. This project investigates two commonly employed techniques (cognitive change and acceptance) from two of the most well-researched treatment programs to determine their effect alone and in combination. With this project we aim to advance a potentially critical avenue for enhancing the
efficacy of psychotherapy.

Jonas Nygaard Eriksen, Associate Professor, Department of Economics and Business Economics: ”Climate and biodiversity finance”
Amount granted: DKK 3,161,537

Climate change and biological diversity (biodiversity) loss are pressing global concerns that profoundly affect consumption patterns, investment decisions, and corporate policies. Consumers increasingly demand sustainable goods, and the financial sector has seen a noticeable rise in the demand for green and sustainable financial assets. While sustainability and climate change have been focal research areas, biodiversity loss has been overlooked in the financial literature, and we know little about how investors and firms perceive, price, and manage biodiversity risks. This is surprising as biodiversity is essential for our survival and because biodiversity preservation costs are similar to mitigating climate change from CO2 emissions. For that reason, it becomes crucial to determine a firm’s exposure to biodiversity risk, clarify its effects, and distinguish them from risks associated with the green transition in general. For example, the pharmaceutical industry depends on a diverse natural environment to develop life-saving medicines, whereas the wind energy industry faces regulatory risks related to land conservation and species protection. A deeper understanding of risks and exposures can help strengthen the green transition and ensure optimal resource allocations.

Timo Trimborn, Professor, Department of Economics and Business Economics: ”Distributional Consequences of the EU Energy Transition”
Amount granted: DKK 2,750,098

This research project investigates the distributional consequences of the European Union's clean energy transition, aiming to achieve net carbon neutrality by 2050. For that purpose, an economic model of European regions is set up, that integrates detailed representations of electricity production and transmission networks, different renewable energy potentials across regions, technological progress in renewable energy production, and economic interactions across regions and sectors. The model is used to assess the impact of the clean energy transition on electricity prices, industry structure, income, and consumption across regions. Furthermore, it evaluates the effectiveness of policy interventions, such as clean energy subsidies as part of REPowerEU and grid enhancements, in shaping the pace and trajectory of the renewable energy transition and its economic implications. 

Jakob Tolstrup, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science: ”The Microfoundations of Authoritarian Repression”
Amount granted: DKK 3,165,388

Repression serves as the linchpin of authoritarian control, essential for the survival of autocracies. While autocratic regimes may not continuously employ coercive tactics, they must uphold the credibility of the threat of repression. Nevertheless, our comprehension of how citizens develop their perceptions of repression credibility and, more crucially, what factors prompt individuals in autocratic societies to revise their views on acceptable dissent remains surprisingly inadequate. This project breaks new ground by developing a new theory on the microfoundations of authoritarian repression, which accounts for how imperfect information signals and hitherto overlooked social-norm aspects shape individual self-censoring behavior. Through focus group interviews, surveys, and survey experiments we investigate how people in autocracies form their understandings of repression credibility and what information signals are important for altering assessments of when dissent is deemed possible.

Luke Nicholas Taylor, Associate Professor, Department of Economics and Business Economics: ”Robustness in Nonparametric Hypothesis Tests”
Amount granted: DKK 3.3038.901

In social science, traditional statistical methods often simplify the complexities of reality into basic models to make calculations more manageable, but this can lead to inaccurate conclusions. This project aims to transform this approach using non-parametric methods that let the data itself shape the model rather than relying on restrictive assumptions like linearity. These methods are more flexible, allowing us to, for example, better capture the varied impacts of social programs — such as how a technology training program might benefit younger people differently from older individuals.

However, the added flexibility of non-parametric methods comes with its own challenges. This project is divided into two parts, each focusing on different ways to handle these challenges within hypothesis testing. The first works on making non-parametric statistical tests more reliable by improving how we select key parameters that control the level of smoothing in the data analysis. The second part applies advanced machine learning techniques to enhance these methods further, reducing bias introduced by overly simplistic models.

Thomas Friis Søgaard, Associate Professor, Centre for Alcohol and Drug Research, Department of Psychology and Behavioural Sciences: ”Drug Trafficking Careers. A Qualitative Study of Trajectories in Serious Drug Crime”
Amount granted: DKK 3,066,630

This criminological research project will explore individuals’ pathways into and out of serious drug crimes such as production, smuggling and sales of large quantities of illegal drugs. Serious drug crime is a multi-billion-dollar industry and a significant global problem. While authorities in western countries invest massive resources in combating serious drug crime, research shows that control efforts have limited success. One reason for this is that our understanding of offenders and their trajectories in(to) serious drug crime is limited. Based on interviews with 60 individuals, convicted of serious drug crime, this project investigates the structural, social and subjective processes that shape individuals’ pathways into and out of serious drug crime. The project will produce knowledge that can inform police work, be used in crime prevention and in exit- and reintegrative programs aimed at helping individuals retain a crime-free life.

Jens Blom-Hansen, Professor, Department of Political Science: “Chairing the Council of the European Union (EUCHAIR)”
Amount granted: DKK 3,143,676

The member states take turns leading the EU. They each preside for 6-month periods over the Council of the EU. In the spring of 2024, Belgium is at the helm, then Hungary takes over in the autumn of 2024, followed by Poland in the spring of 2025, and so on. The significance of this rotation system is intensively debated. One line of research finds that the presidency is embedded in so strong norms of impartiality that it represents “responsibility without power.” Another line finds that the presidency can be exploited to pursue national priorities. The purpose of EUCHAIR is to investigate the constraints and empowerments of the Council presidency. This project employs two analytical strategies. First, it provides a much-needed new theorization of the presidency that considers the many important post-millennium institutional changes to the scope conditions of the presidency. Second, EUCHAIR investigates the empirical relevance of this new theoretical understanding by the hitherto most ambitious presidency study. Denmark is taking over the presidency in the autumn of 2025, and through unprecedented access to the Danish Foreign Ministry, EUCHAIR will undertake a political-ethnographic study of the presidency as it unfolds in real time.

Oluf Gøtzsche-Astrup, Associate Professor, Department of Psychology and Behavioural Sciences: ”The fight for the climate: Climate activism and radicalism”
Amount granted: DKK 3,023,093

Punctured SUVs. Blockaded main roads during rush hour. Destroyed oil drilling platforms and blown up pipelines. Future violent attacks against leaders of companies perceived as climate sinners and retaliatory attacks against climate activists? Recent years has seen an intensification of the climate change debate along with the increased severity of climate change itself, creating a security challenge around radicalisation of climate activists. Although we know quite a bit about which processes generally drive radicalisation in society, we potentially face a new type of radicalisation, namely radicalisation for the climate that is fundamentally different from, for example, religious or right-wing extremist radicalisation. Study after study documents widespread concern and anxiety, especially from young people, on the climate issue, feelings that can lead to strong actions. This project investigates the potential for and mechanisms behind radicalisation for and against the climate change issue. This is done through questionnaire surveys and experiments in the general population and through focused interviews with climate activists. The project examines the role that emotionally close events attributed to climate change, the experience of political passivity and oppression from authorities, as well as the fundamental understanding of the climate challenge plays in radicalising for the climate.