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Scenario-Based Strategising

This course provides participants with a method for developing superior strategies and stress-testing them for future preparedness. Participants will get hands-on experience with scenario planning software.

Facts about the course

Date: 12-13 December 2018

Duration: 09:00 - 16:00

Venue: Aarhus BSS, Fuglesangs Allé 4, 8210 Aarhus V

Price: DKK 10.500 excl. VAT and incl. course materials, lunch and refreshments.
Discount opportunities

Registration deadline: 28 November 2018. Registration cannot be withdrawn after the deadline.


At the end of this course, participants will be able to:

  • Understand and apply the methods of scenario-based strategising and use these to enhance their company’s competitive positions in dynamic external environments.
  • Integrate scenario-based strategising into their organisation’s future business development and strategy.


Pernille Hjorth Nielsen

Programme manager
H bldg. 2610, S413c
P +4587152361
P +4521841124

About the course

Without foresight, companies won’t change. Leaders responsible for making decisions about product or service investments, resource allocation, and how to position the organisation in future markets-in-the-making, need enhanced decision-making processes. Management strategies are often emergent and sporadic rather than deliberate and rigorous. This course teaches participants the techniques to develop superior strategies by way of clear steps and assisted by software.

The objectives of the course are to:

  • Give executives a practical introduction to key theories and methodologies of scenario development and testing.
  • Develop participants’ ability to work with scenario-based planning as part of their leadership function, and provide them with the tools to critically assess, audit, and improve strategies.
  • Give executives hands-on techniques for integrating the method into their own cases and organisations.

The course incorporates interactive lectures, software-based group work, presentations and discussions. It is a hands-on course, and participants will learn to master the methods by practising them. Knowledge of advanced mathematical or statistical analysis, or computer modelling, is not required.

Who should attend?

This is an intensive short course aimed at company executives responsible for strategy development, strategic decision-making, direction-setting, and strategy implementation in their organisations. It is also relevant for business advisors or consultants. The course is appropriate for delegates from across different industries and sectors, as well as for public and non-profit managers.


Professor René Rohrbeck is Professor of Strategy at the Aarhus School of Business and Social Sciences, Aarhus University. He is author of the book “Corporate foresight – Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a firm,” and his research has been published in leading journals. René has also edited the special issue on Corporate Foresight in Technological Forecasting and Social Change and has been the track chair at International Society for Professional Innovation Management (ISPIM) conferences. He has consulted to clients on topics including designing innovation management systems, developing and implementing corporate foresight practices, as well as the strategic and financial planning of new business fields. Before joining Aarhus University, René spent six years in industry where he worked with innovation management at Volkswagen and with corporate foresight at Deutsche Telekom.

Dr. Matthew Spaniol completed his dissertation, “Scenario planning in practice: Empirical philosophy, social foundation, paradox, and definitions” in autumn 2017. His research interests include strategic foresight and the sociology of science and technology. He has consulted across public, private, and non-profit firms in a range of industries. He has extensive experience in the maritime and marine sector, and leads the PERISCOPE project, an innovation and foresight-driven project across the North Sea Region. He is from the United States.


Day 1, Session 1

Introduction and overview


Day 1, Session 2

Advanced strategy process


Day 1, Session 3

Trend audits and thinking in systems


Day 1, Session 4

Building scenarios

Day 2, Session 1

Scenarios and Strategy

Day 2, Session 2

Building a strategy playbook

Day 2, Session 3

Selecting strategies

Day 2, Session 4

Presentations and audit

Practical information

Indicative readings
Hamel, G., & Prahalad, C. K. (1994). Competing for the future. Harvard Business Review, 72(4), 122–128.

Lehr, T. et al. (2017) ‘Scenario-based strategizing: Advancing the applicability in strategists’ teams’, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 124, pp. 214–224. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.06.026.

Day, G. S. and Schoemaker, P. J. H. (2016) ‘Adapting to Fast-Changing Markets and Technologies’, California Management Review. SAGE Publications Inc, 58(4), pp. 59–77. doi: 10.1525/cmr.2016.58.4.59.

Spaniol, M. What is a Scenario? Ch. 4 in PhD Dissertation. 2017.