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Forecasting Future Markets

This course teaches participants a verified methodology to validly estimate the size of new and near-term future markets, to inform the management planning process when allocating resources and making investments.

Facts about the course

Date: 9 November 2018

Duration: 09:00 - 16:00

Venue: Aarhus BSS, Fuglesangs Allé 4, 8210 Aarhus V

Language of instruction: English  

Price: DKK 5,400 excl. VAT and incl. course materials, lunch and refreshments.
Discount opportunities

Registration deadline 26 October 2018. Registration cannot be withdrawn after the deadline.

Knowledge and skills outcomes

At the end of this course, delegates will be able to:

  • Understand and apply the methods of top-down, bottom-up estimations, and integrate these with expert perspectives to form a reliable view of the size of a market.

  • Integrate valid market assessment techniques with techniques of trend-audit to be able to validly assess the forces of change on markets, and therefore assess market size as it may change under the forces of change.


Pernille Hjorth Nielsen

Programme manager
H bldg. 2610, S413c
P +4587152361
P +4521841124

About the course

Managers of companies who make decisions about product or services investments, regional allocations, or entry into new and potential future markets, have a great need for knowing the size of the market opportunity they are investigating. Such knowledge is crucial in decision-making, but it is only occasionally directly available and, when so, is often unreliable. This course teaches managers the techniques to validly calculate and reliably estimate the market size information they need.

The objective of the course is to:

  • Give participants a practical introduction to the key methodologies of validly estimating market size when such data does not exist or may be unreliable.
  • Teach participants the limitations of extrapolative future data, and give participants the techniques for integrating trend perspectives into the methodology of estimating market size.
  • Develop participants’ ability and critical savvy in using these approaches and tools in their decision-making, as part of their everyday management and leadership function.
  • Give delegates perspectives and tools to critically assess the market-size estimates of industry analysts or their own market-size forecasts.

Who should attend?

This is an intensive course aimed at company executives and divisional decision-makers who are responsible for strategic decision-making and direction-setting in their enterprises or for determining the path of a business or division. It is also relevant for business advisors or consultants. It is relevant across almost every industry: health care, media-entertainment, financial services, energy, luxury goods, transportation, property development, tourism-hospitality, etc., and for both the private and public sector.


Professor René Rohrbeck is a Professor of Strategy at the Aarhus BSS, Aarhus University. He is the author of the book “Corporate foresight – Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a firm”, and his research has been published in leading international journals. He has consulted to clients on topics including the design of innovation management systems, how to develop and implement corporate foresight practices, as well as the strategic and financial planning of new business fields. Before joining Aarhus University, he spent six years in industry where he worked with innovation management at Volkswagen and with corporate foresight at Deutsche Telekom.

Dr Adam Gordon is Associate Professor in the Strategic Foresight Research Network at Aarhus BSS, Aarhus University. He also contributes to developing the school’s executive education platform. His academic areas span across the fields of foresight, innovation, organisational learning and leadership decision-making. Adam has taught at over a dozen universities including INSEAD, Aalto EE, and Monash GSB, and has been an editorial board member of World Future Review: Journal of Strategic Foresight, and Foresight: Journal of Applied Forecasting. He is the author of Future Savvy: Quality in Foresight (Amacom Press). Adam is an INSEAD MBA and has organised workshops in applied strategic foresight and leadership development for over 20 years. He is a former Director of Executive Education at the University of Witwatersrand.


Part 1 Estimating the size of new markets
In this part, you are introduced to methods of finding relevant market information that you can use to make reliable markets estimates where no direct market research exists.

Part 2 Estimating the size of future markets
In this part, you are introduced to methods for estimating the size of future markets, anticipating company growth or decline on the market and the effects of disruption.

Course approach and teaching techniques

The programme incorporates interactive lectures, group work, presentations and discussions – blending theory models with worked examples and real-world situations. It is a hands-on course, and delegates will be allowed to use the method in practice. Routine numeracy is required, but the course contains no advanced mathematical or statistical analysis or computer modelling.